Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the country and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in academia but scarcely any elected officials or advocates want to engage with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. They authors two essays that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative positions."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster should join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
